Brazilian agribusiness exports totaled US $ 49 billion in the first half of 2018, up 2% from the same period last year, according to Esalq / USP’s Cepea (Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics). This result was coupled with an increase of almost 4% in volume exported, as average dollar prices fell in the period. In real terms, the external sales of agribusiness grew about 10%, due to the depreciation of the national currency.
Researchers at Cepea indicate that the highlight of the first half was the exchange rate. As the real depreciated by almost 10% in the average of the period, there was an increase in the attractiveness of foreign sales. As a result, the competitiveness of products exported by the sector increased again in the first half of 2018. The highest volume exported in the first half of this year, in turn, is due to the growth in sales of products from the forest sector, orange juice, corn , cotton and fruit.
China remained the main destination for Brazilian agribusiness exports in the first half of this year, with more than 36% of the total, followed by countries in the Euro Zone (13.6%) and the United States (6.3 %). Chinese demand continues to be concentrated in cereal / legume / oilseed products, which accounted for more than 80% of China’s purchases.
2nd semester
For the second half of this year, greater exchange rate volatility is expected due to the country’s elections. In addition, researchers from Cepea point out that, with the change in the trade policy of important trading partners in Brazil, it is difficult to predict the net effect on the sector’s exports. On the one hand, sales may grow for partners affected by rising tariffs imposed by the United States, but on the other hand, the country may have to negotiate purchases and sales of these products with major partners such as China, the United States and Mexico.
In addition, the climate has already reduced the supply of important products, such as corn and coffee. Even so, in general terms, the Brazilian crop should remain at good levels in 2018. The focus and concerns in the second half of the year should focus on the development of the North American crop and the unfolding of trade policy. In the face of internal and external problems, maintaining the same level of 2017 exports, or something close to it, will be a challenge for the national sector in 2018.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.