In the last 30 years, pastures, grains and citrus have ceased to occupy about 1.5 million hectares in the Mogi-Guaçu and Pardo river basins in the northeast of the state of São Paulo. Sugarcane was the crop that occupied most of this area, as it gained about 1.3 million hectares. But other crops have also gained ground in the region: eucalyptus forests, rubber plantations and high quality coffee plantations. The areas of native forests, which today occupy 20% of the territory – behind only the cane, have grown.
The new portrait of agriculture in northeast São Paulo and the factors that motivated the changes are in a study recently completed by Embrapa Territorial, which compared satellite images of 125 municipalities in an area of 52,000 square kilometers from 1988 to 2016. The researchers also went to the field to check information and raise socioeconomic data that explained the changes and revealed more than the images.
The areas with annual crops – maize and soybeans, mainly – have regressed and fell from 936 thousand to 352 thousand hectares. The northern portion of the study area had more than half of the land occupied by this type of crop in the late 1980s. Currently, the portion allocated to them reaches a maximum of 20% in some municipalities. The annual crops were concentrated in two poles of irrigated agriculture, around the municipalities of Casa Branca and Guaíra.
Search for greater profitability
More profitable alternatives than rainfed crops gain space under such conditions, such as potatoes and the production of soybean and corn seeds. Also noteworthy is the investment in green maize, for human consumption, rather than dry maize for the competitive feed market. “With irrigation, farmers anticipate harvesting with green corn and then plant beans and then potatoes, for example. In doing so, they achieve a higher income than with cane, “says researcher Carlos Cesar Ronquim of Embrapa Territorial, who coordinated the study.
However, it was not a change promoted by farmers to cope with the advance of sugarcane. The sites and farms in those areas had already invested in irrigation and markets with higher sales value and, therefore, had no interest in occupying areas with sugarcane. “This farmer uses technology and is getting results because he can harvest three harvests a year,” says the researcher.
Annual crops, especially soybeans and peanuts, also gain space during the renewal of sugarcane plantations. Every five years, sugarcane needs to be replanted, and in the interval between one planting and another, many owners or plants provide land for growing legumes. It is a considerable area, since sugarcane occupies 2.2 million hectares in the northeast of São Paulo.
For soybeans, production is insignificant in the Brazilian context, compared to the large crops in the Midwest and other regions. In the case of peanuts, however, this practice places the state of São Paulo, especially the city of Jaboticabal, at the top of national production.
Grassland shrunk and native vegetation increased
The area dedicated to livestock was by far the most lost area in the northeast of São Paulo. Forty years ago, pastures were the first to occupy land in the region, covering 27% of the rural area. In 2015, with 13% of the space, they appear behind not only sugarcane, but also of native vegetation reserves.
In the case of dairy farming, the opportunity to rent the sugar cane came at a time when Paulista producers and cooperatives found it difficult to compete with other regions of the country. Until the introduction of long-life milk technology , in the 1990s, they did not suffer competition from other states, as the product’s shelf life was very short. With the “milk carton”, the situation has changed, according to the Embrapa scientist.
Most of the ranchers who managed to stay in the dairy sector are small. This is because the reduced size of the properties hampers the logistics of the mills, which are not interested in leasing them. In addition, they often have family labor and avoid the costs of hiring employees. The adoption of specific systems for their conditions, such as Embrapa’s Balde Cheio project, also helped to keep many of them active. Few medium- and large-scale producers opted to remain in the segment. Those who have invested heavily in optimization technologies, scale and production control, notes Ronquim.
Cattle farmers for slaughter also left areas in the northeast of São Paulo and migrated to border regions with cheaper land. Those who remain normally invest in the intensification of production, with practices of confinement and semiconfinamento.
New overview of citrus
The fall in the citrus area exceeded 180,000 hectares, but was still significantly lower than grains (584,000 ha) and pasture (700,000 ha). Low yields, the need for manual harvesting, and difficulties in combating orchard diseases, especially greening, are the main factors that have led many farmers to give up citrus farming. Cities, once large producers, such as Bebedouro and Itápolis, now have most of the territory occupied by sugarcane.
Nonetheless, total fruit production in the region remained stable thanks to productivity gains. The higher yield of the orchards can be credited to the adoption of management techniques, mainly by means of the densification in the new plantations. In 1980, there were, on average, 360 feet of orange per hectare; currently, the density has changed to 668 plants, according to data from the Fund for the Defense of Citriculture (Fundecitrus). In general, there is a concentration of production on large properties.
Some municipalities were against the trend of falling area and expanded the orchards of citrus, with an eye on the fruit market in natura of the large urban centers of which they are close. This is the case of Mogi Mirim, Mogi Guaçu, Casa Branca and Conchal.
Hegemony of the cane
The most significant expansion is that of sugarcane, which covers 44% of the land in the northeast of São Paulo. In the region, the sector accounted for half of the total value of agricultural production, which reached R $ 9.5 billion in 2016. Participation is higher than the state average, which is 35%. Only five of the 125 municipalities studied do not have sugarcane plantations: Águas de Lindoia, Lindoia, Águas da Prata, Santo Antônio do Jardim and Divinolândia. In the other 120, the volume of land cultivated with cane increased. The exception is Ribeirão Preto, where activity has given way to urban expansion.
In absolute numbers, the areas of native vegetation are the ones that grew the most, after the reed. They already occupied 870,000 hectares and now reach nearly one million hectares. The Embrapa researcher points out that this increase was not due to planting, but due to spontaneous regeneration and, timidly, for the better conservation of the permanent preservation areas.
For the coming years, the expectation is more growth, in view of the new Forest Code and the prohibition of manual harvesting of sugarcane, which, in practice, makes production unviable in areas with declivity above 12%. Satellite monitoring reveals 150 thousand hectares of sugarcane plantations in this condition, equivalent to 7.1% of the area of the basins analyzed.
Planted forests have also increased: 17,000 new hectares for eucalyptus and about 12,000 for rubber trees. The latter had the most significant relative growth, since, in 1988, they occupied less than 200 hectares. Even with this jump, the heveculture is still not very significant in the region. The eucalyptus reached 157 thousand hectares, but also has little participation of the value of agricultural production, being ahead only of the dairy cattle.
Potential for advancement of specialty coffees
What surprised the researchers was the expansion of coffee: the area almost doubled, going from 67 thousand to 123 thousand hectares. The phenomenon occurred in the region of Mogiana, near Minas Gerais, especially Pedregulho, Caconde, Franca and Cristais Paulista. A coffee area of 114,367 ha was observed in the 26 major coffee-producing municipalities located in the eastern part of the study region, representing about 90% of all coffee production in the study region and more than 50% of coffee production. coffee in the state of São Paulo.
During a visit to the site, the team found that the investment was in the production of specialty coffees, which are favored by the relief and climate of the region. About 90% of these coffee plantations are on land with an altitude of over 800 meters. “The quality coffee produced has greater value in the market. With the profit margin extended, producers can stay in business and even expand plantations, “analyzes Ronquim.
The study by Embrapa Territorial shows that the region has potential for new coffee plantations, since there are many pastures at elevated altitude, in lands with slopes lower than 20%. The economic scenario is also favorable: coffee consumption grows internationally, Brazil being the second largest market in the world.
Embrapa sent the comparative maps of the occupation of the rural areas to the houses of agriculture of the 125 municipalities of the study. For Ronquim, tracking and understanding the dynamics of agriculture can help the planning of local governments and cooperatives.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.