The 4th DATAGRO Crop Call Grains was held on Wednesday (24), with an emphasis on the Brazilian soybean and corn crop 2018/19. The chief grain analyst at DATAGRO Consultancy, Flávio Roberto de França Júnior exclusively analyzed for customers the area growth projections, grain production increase and market forecasts for the sector.
Among the various topics that permeate the discussion about soy and corn, the webinar highlighted perspectives for the 2018/19 crop in Brazil, main aspects for price formation, supply and consumption variables, as well as the main financial market indicators and the impact on prices.
In the scenario presented by França Júnior, the outlook is for the corn crop to be planted in 2018/19, which should total 17, 376 million hectares in the sum of the two harvests, against 16,824 million ha of the previous harvest. “The same should happen with the harvest, which is expected to reach 92.771 million tons, against 81.137 million tons of this year’s revised crop. In relation to soybeans, an increase in the area is also expected to reach 36.112 million ha, against 35.241 million ha of the current crop. And in production to 122,245 million, compared to 120,232 million tons of the current revised crop, “said the analyst.
According to the specialist, the crop has several positive factors, such as 2018 prices much better than the previous year, record productivity, gross profitability between 24% and 47%, consistent global demand and good availability of credit.
Some pricing scenarios on the Chicago Stock Exchange, premiums and exchange rates for 2019, and expectations of an impact on the domestic market were also forecast – revealing tighter income trends for producers, but still positive.
“Of the three main factors of price formation for soybeans, we have the CBOT with a conservative scenario, depending on the advance in the US-China trade war, positive prizes, but also tied to the conflict between the Americans and Chinese, and falling exchange rates , depending on the formation of the new government and progress of the reforms. But despite the scenario of lower domestic prices in 2019, I see margins still positive for Brazilian soybean and corn producers. “
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.