The fifth Crop Call Grains DATAGRO was held this Tuesday (27), with emphasis on revisions of estimates for the 2018/19 soybean and corn crop in Brazil.
The chief analyst at DATAGRO Consultoria, Flávio Roberto de França Júnior, exclusively prospected and analyzed for customers the record growth in the areas of cultivation and also in the production of the two crops; the likely worsening of prices for 2019, but still with positive profitability. In addition, the effects of the trade war between the United States and China on the market and the probable confirmation of the El Niño phenomenon at the end of the year were also observed.
This month’s estimate for both crops is for growth of more than 3% in cultivated areas and in production. This expectation is the same as last month’s. The 2017/18 corn crop had 16.8 million hectares for cultivation, against the current 17.3 million hectares. Production in the previous harvest was 81.1 million tonnes, down from the 95.3 million forecast for this trading year.
Regarding soybeans, the projection on the area indicated 35.2 million hectares in the previous crop and 36.1 million in the current crop. Production in the 2017/18 harvest was 121.4 million tons. For the current crop, the expectation is 124.6 million tons.
Among the positive factors of the grain market are the consistent global demand; the beneficiation of Brazil with the US-China trade war and also the good availability of credit. However, some factors may limit the good performance of the business year, such as the increase in production costs; exchange rate insecurity; the environmental limitation for expansion of areas and the increase in freight prices.
According to the consultant, “the election of a pro-market candidate on the domestic scene, the international stock market on the rise and oil prices tending to recover from the weak current bases are factors that can bring investors back to the tip buyer in the grain market “.
Domestically, the trends for 2019 are tighter, but still positive. This would tend to confirm the advance of the income to the producers in the cultivation of soybean and corn in the country.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.