The increase in rice exports, especially to countries in the African continent, could represent a return to profitability for producers who have been suffering with constant setbacks in recent years. In the evaluation of the Federation of Associations of Rice Growers of Rio Grande do Sul (Federarroz), consultations for the supply of paddy rice are growing, due to the poor quality of the product sold by other players in the market.
According to the president of Federarroz, Henrique Dornelles, the expectation of reduction of area in Rio Grande do Sul, reaching close to one million hectares, has been confirmed by the research institutes, which means a reduction of 70 thousand hectares in relation to the period past. “Brazil is expected to harvest less than 11 million tonnes as a whole. All states are reducing their productions. Rio Grande do Sul was the one that had the most resilience to reduce its area and now for the sake of profitability, it ended up giving in to the planting “, he emphasizes.
Dornelles reinforces that the fact is positive for the market, because 500 thousand tons will be produced less in Rio Grande do Sul alone, which means, in numbers, half a harvest of Paraguay. Mercosur, with the exception of Brazil, will produce 200 thousand tons less. Thus, the whole block will produce 1 million tons less, which should result in the strengthening of prices.
On exports, Brazil is expected to ship in the current commercial period about 1.5 million tons, surpassing the initial expectation of 1.2 million. Imports should not reach 1 million tonnes. Considering these numbers, the passing stock on February 28 should be adjusted to less than 500 thousand tons. “The smallest passing stock in the last ten years,” says the leader.
For the president of Federarroz, another positive point was the reversal of the weakened dollar expectation. He observes that the dollar variables in the world have changed and there is an expectation of around R $ 3.80 to R $ 3.90, which is positive for rice exports in Brazil. Considering this scenario, the leader informs that Federarroz has been consulted in several parts of the world, from the African continent to Central America, to export rice. “This shows a heated demand for rice and we believe that despite the expectation of higher prices next year, we should have good export numbers. Maybe we will not reach 1.5 million but we will easily exceed one million tons, “he says.
The reduction of rice area, according to Dornelles, is also linked to the growth of soybean planting in the floodplain, showing the diversification advocated by Federarroz. He points out that in Dom Pedrito, for example, the oilseed has surpassed 100 thousand hectares and the cereal has decreased considerably. “We have regions where soy has doubled its area and rice has decreased by 20%. Producers who have used high technology have found a significant response, with above average yields, showing that soybeans in the floodplain or in rice fields have excellent potential. However, there are occasional cases that the planting has not entered with force because the areas are not adequate and the technologies used are not correct, “he says.
As a negative point, Dornelles highlights the high cost of inputs as something that came to last in a short time at the moment that there is an expectation of a dollar more valued added to the dollar prices of fertilizers and pesticides. Regarding the harvest, the president of Federarroz evaluates that the planting was executed in its great fullness in the ideal period, but some crops that are behind are behind schedule and with risks of not having the appropriate cultural treatments, since the difficulty of acquisition especially of urea. “There is some stress to run the second application of urea and the producers with more financial difficulties will have problems executing this cultural deal with nitrogen. Knowing that rice is extremely dependent on nitrogen and solar radiation we should have a negative impact on productivity in counterpoint to planting mostly in the ideal period, “he adds.
Another negative point, for Dornelles, are the occurrences of cold and low relative humidity of the air that leave apprehensive producers, especially orizicultores who planted in the early, mainly in the West Frontier. However, what is relevant is that we should not have as favorable a climate as the last period. Finally, Federarroz continues to recommend the reduction of area, especially those of potential below eight thousand kilos per hectare.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.