The improvement of the optimism among producers and industries linked to Brazilian agriculture led the Agribusiness Confidence Index (IC Agro) to close the first quarter of 2018 with the best result of the historical series, at 107.1 points, advance of 6.8 points in relation to the immediately preceding quarter. According to the methodology of the study, results above 100 points correspond to optimism. Scores below demonstrate a low degree of confidence. The IC Agro is an indicator measured by Fiesp and the Organization of Brazilian Cooperatives (OCB).
Since the second quarter of 2017, when it has reached 92.4 points, agribusiness has consistently recorded improvement in its level of confidence, returning to the level considered optimistic in the first quarter of 2018. This result of the aggregate index was influenced mainly by industry confidence (before and after the door), which reached 109.1 points, an increase of 9.7 points over the previous quarter. The manufacturers of agricultural inputs make up the group in which optimism is highest: in this case, confidence reached 116.1 points, up 10.9 points from the previous quarter.
“Although for the manufacturers of pesticides and fertilizers the first quarter of the year marks the beginning of the negotiations of the next crop, the good prospects of business weighed to the result, in a moment in which the main agricultural commodities recovered value, increasing the profitability of the producers . In addition, the estimate for the grain harvest is improving every month and is already close to the previous record, which was not expected, since the productivities surprised, as in the case of soy, for example, “explains Márcio Lopes de Freitas , president of OCB.
The Index of Confidence of Industries located after the Porteira also performed well, a result of the positive moment for some of the segments surveyed. “The increase in soybean prices and premiums paid at Brazilian ports is allowing tradings to recover profitability, after a long period with depressed profit margins,” added Freitas.
“This perception of optimism reinforces the data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) Monthly Survey of Trade, which increased in the last 12 months, accumulated until February 2018, in the sales of hypermarkets and supermarkets of foodstuffs, with high of 2.0% by volume. In the first two months of this year, against the same period of 2017, the increase was 2.6%, “explains Roberto Betancourt, director of the Agribusiness Department of Fiesp.
There was also progress in the index of confidence of the agricultural producer (agricultural and livestock), which closed the first quarter of 2018 at 104.5 points, up 2.7 points from the previous quarter. According to the results, the mood has improved for both farmers and ranchers – although the latter are still in the pessimistic score range. In the first case, the index rose 3.2 points, reaching 107.2 points.
According to the manager of the Agribusiness Department of Fiesp, Antonio Carlos Costa, “the increase in the degree of optimism is a consequence of a rare combination for this time of year: good productivity in crops and high prices, due to the international situation, such as the Argentine harvest of grains. ” In the case of prices, the confidence indicator increased almost 30 points in a year, but it is important to remember that in early 2017 agricultural commodities were in a downtrend. “Another relevant point is that the survey was closed at the end of March and did not fully capture the effect of price hikes on producers’ moods, as the soy and maize appreciation trend strengthened in early April,” he said. concluded Costa.
Among cattle ranchers, confidence was practically stable. The indicator in this group rose 1.1 points, closing the quarter at 96.2 points. The small increase was not sufficient to remove this group of producers from the range considered pessimistic by the methodology of the study, where it remains for six consecutive quarters.