Paraná closed the 2017/18 summer grain harvest with a production of 22.3 million tons, 12% lower than the one obtained in 2016/17. The State Secretariat for Agriculture and Food Supply forecasts a production of 38.9 million tons of grain for the year, a decrease of 7% over last year, which reached 41.6 million tons.
This reduction occurs due to the climatic problems that occurred during the crop cycle of beans, corn and soybean. Still, the crop is considered excellent, says the Agriculture and Supply Secretariat, which released on Friday (27) the monthly report of crop monitoring for the month of April.
For the director of the Department of Rural Economy (Deral), Francisco Carlos Simioni, were it not for the rainy weather factor recorded in January and February of this year, at the peak of summer, corn and soybean crops would have similar results to the 2016 harvest / 17, which was considered exceptional. This was the factor that pulled down yields around 10% for corn and 7% for soybeans. Among summer grains, only beans showed higher losses in the first crop, he said. On the other hand, if the producers were not able to obtain the expected productivity initially, they are now being compensated by the good prices, said Simioni.
According to him, the marketing is going through a good time. The soybean is providing an average gain of up to R $ 18 per bag and at the same time it follows the complex (bran and oil) when compared to the same period in 2017. For corn, an average gain of R $ 10 is estimated each bag sold. Simioni warns the producer to be aware of this moment, especially in relation to the exchange that is favorable to the commercialization of commodities, one of the best since January 2017.
He also points out in relation to investment opportunities. With the economic indicators showing a stronger trend for the consolidation of the resumption of growth in the country, the better yield of commodities and, possibly, a reduction of interest on agricultural financing, the moment is conducive to the planning of new investments. “However, it is necessary to wait for the release of the new Agricultural and Livestock Plan that is expected to be announced in the month of May,” he said.
Rains
In relation to the second harvest, in progress, and to the winter harvest, which is beginning to be planted, the expectation is linked to the climate. Farmers are already apprehensive about the lack of rainfall that could affect the second crop of maize and beans, which are in the field and the planting of the winter crop, and may delay the planting of wheat. According to Simioni, if the delay in harvesting the summer crop and the lack of rain are pushing forward the planting of winter crops, especially wheat, which is the main crop grown in the state at this time, on the other hand is benefiting the producer . This is because he can escape the effects of the drought on the winter crops, which await the return of the rains to the planting.
Soy
The harvest of the 17/18 harvest ended with a production of 19.1 million tons, 4% less than the previous harvest, which yielded 19.8 million tons. The climate was not so beneficial, which brought productivity back about 7%, dropping from 3,762 kilos per hectare in the 16/17 crop to 3,503 kilos per hectare in the 17/18 crop. According to Deral economist Marcelo Garrido, this year’s soybean yield has returned to historical levels, which has still ensured a good crop, he said. The average price of soybeans marketed in Paraná in April was R $ 74.00 a bag, a 32% increase on sales in April last year, when soy was sold for around R $ 56.00 a take out
Warming in prices is being attributed to a smaller crop around the world, reflecting the crop failure in Argentina because of the drought. And also the trade conflict between the United States and China, which triggered the demand for Brazilian soybeans. And in the last few days, the dollar’s rise against the real appreciated soybeans, making it even more attractive to those buying outside, Garrido said.
The analyst warns about the prospects going forward that will have the market influence with the spread of the area planted with soybeans in the United States in the 2018/19 crop. According to Deral, 50% of the soybean in Paraná has been sold, a larger volume than in the same period last year, when 36% of the crop was sold. “Bigger prices are accelerating sales,” he said.
Corn
The first crop planted in Paraná is with 90% of the area already harvested, and 50% sold. The first harvest is closing with a volume of 2.8 million tons, 43% less than the same period of the year, when it yielded 4.9 million tons. The first corn crop fell sharply as a result of a 36% drop in planted area and a 10% loss in crop productivity. It was a small crop and, like soybeans, the weather was also a determining factor for the loss of productivity, said Garrido.
Maize is being marketed by the producer for about R $ 31 a bag, 48% increase compared to April last year, when it was sold, on average, for R $ 21.00 a bag. This appreciation of the grain is occurring due to the fall in the supply of the product. The corn crop is lower in Paraná, as in other Brazilian states.
According to Garrido, last year Paraná produced 18.3 million tons between the two crops grown in the State and this year will offer about 15 million tons, depending on the behavior of the climate during the second crop, which is in the field. If this projection is confirmed, the drop will be 17% in production, the analyst calculated.
The second crop of corn is planted, but it has the concern of producers with the lack of rains that already lasts almost 30 days in some regions. According to Garrido, rainfall is forecast for about a week ahead or even 10 days, but there is no guarantee. And the soil is in need of moisture, he added.
Despite this, it is still early to talk about reduced productivity, although the producer is apprehensive because the crop begins to enter critical phase and needs water to develop. According to Deral, 41% of the crop is in the process of flowering and fruiting, which increases the sector’s concern.
The expectation is still of a second good harvest, with a volume of 12.2 million tons. This volume is 8% lower than the previous harvest, but also corresponds to the drop in the planted area, which was 11%. Last year, 2.4 million hectares of second-crop maize were planted at the same time, and 2.1 million hectares this year.
Wheat
Main winter culture in the state, it is only 1% of the area planted. The planting is delayed due to the harvest of the summer crop that also delayed by climatic problems and, now, by the dry climate. In addition, the producer also remained undefined whether or not he would plant wheat in some regions.
Planting intention is now confirmed and wheat is expected to occupy an area of 1.04 million hectares, 7% above the area planted last year, which reached 972,722 hectares. With normal climate, production is estimated at 3.3 million tonnes, an increase of almost 50% compared to last year when production was 2.2 million tonnes. This result is being estimated according to a projection of 37% increase in productivity.
However, the crop also depends on rainfall, which can frustrate these expectations, warns Garrido. The time is of off season in the supply of wheat and for that reason the price is in elevation. In April this year it is being sold around R $ 38.00 a bag, up 23% compared to the same month last year when it was sold, on average, for R $ 31.00 a bag.
Bean
The moment is of apprehension for the beans of second harvest that is in the field. According to the agronomist of Deral, Carlos Alberto Salvador, the crop entered critical phase, with 21% of the area planted in flowering, and 49% in fruiting. About 6% of the area has already been harvested, which points to the possibility of a fall in productivity. According to Salvador, the concern is that last year at the same time, 85% of the crops were in good condition. And this year, good crops correspond to 79% of the area occupied, that is, there are more bad crops than last year. The analyst reminds us that the period is atypical and that we must wait for the harvest to advance to see if this fall is consolidated due to the lack of rainfall.
Salvador points out that there were good projections for beans performance in the second harvest, which indicated a growth of 5% in relation to the previous one. A harvest of 365,424 tonnes is forecast against 346,610 tonnes harvested in the same period last year. The producers were betting on a 28% increase in productivity, which would offset the 21% drop in planted area. Last year, 251,625 hectares were planted with second-crop beans and, this year, 199,930 hectares.
The commercialization of beans remains locked, with no room for reaction in prices in the short term, said Salvador. A price response will depend on the outcome of the second bean crop in Paraná and Brazil and a possible increase in consumption during the coming winter. Currently, prices are fluctuating. The beans of color increased by 9%, going from R $ 82.50 to the sack in March, to R $ 90.00 in April. Black beans had a drop of 4%, being sold at R $ 108.29 a bag in March and R $ 104.00 in April.