A survey conducted by independent audits with each of the companies associated with CitrusBR and subsequently consolidated quietly by external audit points out that the physical stocks of orange juice in the hands of companies associated with CitrusBR on June 30, 2020 were 471,138 tonnes equivalent to 66 ° Brix (equivalent FCOJ), compared to 253 181 tonnes of FCOJ existing on June 30, 2019. “the final figure confirms the trend indicated in our report in February and May,” the executive director of CitrusBR, Ibiapaba Netto.
Towards the end of the current cycle, on June 30, 2021, CitrusBR estimated ending stocks of FCOJ equivalent must be understood in a range between 240,000 and 280,000 tons of FCOJ equivalent.
lower supply
The reduction, if confirmed, will occur due to the reduced supply of fruit estimated by Fundecitrus in boxes 287 760 000 40.8 kilograms being produced in the current crop. The number is 25.6% lower compared to the boxes 386 790 000 produced in the 2019/20 season. With a domestic market estimated at around 50 million boxes, would be left, so, about 237,760,000 boxes for processing of associated companies and not associated with CitrusBR.
The compilation also showed that for the season 2020/21 is estimated to be an industrial yield around 268 boxes for the production of an equivalent ton of FCOJ. This makes it possible to estimate a production of about 887,164 tons in 2020/21 crop. If confirmed, the volume represents a fall of 26.2% compared to 1,202,792 tons produced in the 2019/20 season. The next review shall take place in February 2021.
demand isThevel
CitrusBR estimates that demand should remain stable, around 1,070,000 tonnes exported in 2019/20 crop, according to data reported by the Foreign Trade Secretariat (Secex).
In this volume we need to add the estimate of orange juice consumption in the domestic market 80,000 tons of FCOJ equivalent to 66 Brix, totaling therefore a demand estimated to be around 1.15 million tons of FCOJ equivalent to 66 Brix. “With these variables we can estimate that at the end of this cycle, if the estimates remain there, would come to this stock final between 240,000 and 280,000 tons,” said Netto.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.