The 16.5% increase in prices and a 21.9% increase in marketed volume led commodities to lead the volume of Brazilian exports in July, in the monthly comparison, and were responsible for the balance of trade in the country last month , which closed positive at US $ 4.2 billion, says Agência Brasil.
The information comes from the Foreign Trade Indicator (Icomex), released today (14), by the Brazilian Institute of Economy of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (Ibre FGV). With the result, the indicator closes the first seven months of the year with a cumulative balance of US $ 34 billion, a result inferior to US $ 18.5 billion compared to the same period of 2017.
According to the FGV publication in July, “export growth is associated with good performance of commodities, while imports were influenced by imports of oil platforms by Petrobras and partners for the pre-salt fields of the Basin of Santos “.
In the trade balance of the country in July, the economists of the FGV highlight the increase in the exported volume of the soybean complex, which in the monthly comparison grew 40%; oil and oil products (41.5%) and meat (16.2%). In addition, price increases above 2 digits were recorded in the complex soybean (11%), iron ore (34%) and oil and derivatives (50%).
They also highlight China’s relevant role in the results. Soybean exports to the Asian country increased 65%, followed by oil with 154%, in addition to the growth of over 100% in sales of beef and pork.
The FGV publication indicates that, in terms of values, the variation of imports was 49.5%, a result 22% above the variation of exports – in the comparison between July of this year and the same month of last year. In the first seven months of the year, compared to 2017, imports grew 22% and exports 7.9%.
For FGV economists, the Brazilian trade balance “remains in a favorable situation” and the foreign sector “is still not a problem for the economic situation of the country.” However, they estimate that the evolution of the effective real exchange rate, which devalued 10.6% between January and July 2018, presents pros and cons. “If on the one hand the devaluation is positive for exports, sharp variations and exchange rate volatility are not favorable for foreign trade operations.” The understanding is that “expectations of devaluations defer export decisions and anticipate those to import”.
Regarding the medium / long term, the evaluation is that the concentration of exports in commodities (in July, soybeans, oil and oil explained 41% of exports) creates a dependence on the Chinese market that places issues on the trade policy agenda for the next government.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.