Spring begins next Saturday (22) at 22:53 and ends on December 21 at 8:22 pm (early summer time). The major international meteorological centers indicate a probability of over 60% of the new El Niño episode being recorded in late spring and early summer 2019.
If the phenomenon is confirmed, it will probably be of short duration and of low or moderate intensity. El Niño causes abnormal warming of surface waters in the tropical Pacific Ocean, affecting the distribution of rainfall, which is also influenced by the temperature on the surface of the Tropical Atlantic Ocean and the ocean area close to the coast of Uruguay and the Southern Region. contained in the Spring Weather Forecast of the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET).
North region
For spring, the climatic models indicate that the North Region must present strong spatial variability in the rainfall distribution, with significant probability of areas with rains within the normal range or below. Typically, there is a reduction of rainfall in the northern part of Pará, Roraima and Amapá, falling below 400 mm during the months of October and December. In the western part of the states of Amazonas, Roraima, Acre and Rondônia, as well as in the extreme south of Pará, there is possibility of rains above average. Temperatures will be from normal to above average.
North East Region
The forecast for this region indicates the predominance of areas with higher probability of rains near the average or slightly below during the season. Inmet points out that the October-December quarter is the driest in the eastern part of the Northeast. Temperatures will be higher over southern Maranhão and Piauí and western Bahia.
Midwest region
The forecast for the new season indicates a high probability of rainfall occurring from normal to slightly below normality in much of the Midwest, except in the southwest of Mato Grosso do Sul and extreme north of Mato Grosso, where the rains will be more regular . Temperatures will be above average, especially in southern Mato Grosso do Sul.
Southeast region
In the next three months, areas with rainfall below the normal range of this season should remain, except in some areas of São Paulo, where there may be heavy rains, especially in November. Overall, Inmet’s climate model indicates that temperatures should remain above average in much of the region over the same period.
South region
The indicative of the possible return of the El Niño event in spring, coupled with an increase in temperature in the Atlantic Ocean on the coast of Argentina and southern Brazil, contribute to the increase of precipitation in much of the Southern Region. Rainfall should be above the range normal in the three states of the region, while mean temperatures should predominate within normalcy in Rio Grande do Sul and above average in the rest of the states.
This text was translated by machine from Brazilian Portuguese.