The Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MPLS) released a new estimate of the gross value of production (VBP) for 2018 on Friday (13). According to the projection, based on information from March, the turnover of the crops should reach R $ 530.1 billion, 3.7% below the one obtained in 2017. But, according to the MPLS, there is a tendency for recovery, as data have indicated signs of increasing value over the months.
Although there was a reduction in value in February compared to the previous month, March already showed a positive variation over February. This may indicate a recovery trend in value over the year, according to José Garcia Gasques, general coordinator for Studies and Analysis of the MPLS’s Agricultural Policy Secretariat. The direction of the results will depend, says Gasques, on product prices and second-crop maize. Crops and livestock production fell by 3.8% and 3.5%, respectively.
The best results are those of cotton, with a 20.9% increase compared to last year, cocoa, 8.7%, castor bean, 68.5%, soybean, 3.8%, potato, 3.4% , coffee, 2%, tomato, 32.7% and wheat, 37.3. All these variations are in real terms (discounting inflation).
Another group of products has presented value reduction, among which are rice, sugar cane, coffee, corn, orange, cassava. As they represent a significant part of the total production value, they have forced down this year’s VBP. This effect was amplified by the reduced value of chicken, pork, and milk, which are also performing worse. Also noteworthy are products that have recovered prices, among which are eggs, cotton, potatoes and tomatoes.
Regional data show that the Center-West leads the other regions in generating production value, followed by the South, Southeast, Northeast and North. Among the states, Mato Grosso, Paraná, São Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio Grande do Sul are the five with the highest values of production this year.